Slumber Company: Pitching Sleeper Candidates in the Padres System

The Padres went into 2023 with few clear front-end pitching prospects. Just three pitchers in the Top 20 had logged any time above Single-A, and four had yet to make their professional debuts. Twelve months later, the top of the system appears to be in better shape.

Beyond the nine pitchers who now occupy a spot in the Top 20, nine others appeared on at least one of our individual Top 30 lists – ranging from Austin Krob, who got several top-20 nods, to Carson Montgomery, who appeared at 29 once. Even after that group, there are an array of arms that have the potential to take a step forward in the coming year.

As noted in our look at sleeper position players in the system, finding true sleepers in minor league baseball is getting more complex. Of the five pitchers in last year’s edition, three remain intriguing arms in the system, but none have yet broken through to the next level.

Starters

Players Receiving Votes: Dylan Lesko, Robby Snelling, Adam Mazur, Victor Lizarraga, Henry Baez, Ryan Bergert, Jagger Haynes, Austin Krob, Isaiah Lowe, Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron

LHP Jay Groome – A year ago, the big lefty was in the midst of a strong spring training that almost earned him his first big league job. From the moment Groome got to El Paso, though, things went downhill, and he finished the year with an ERA of almost 9 and 112 walks in 134.2 Triple-A innings. Despite the dismal season that knocked him out of the top 20, there’s reason to hope the 25-year-old former first-rounder can put things back together again, and the Padres will get a chance to have him work on things in Triple-A courtesy of a fourth option year,

RHP Garrett Hawkins – A Saskatchewan native who agreed to a $75,000 bonus out of NAIA University of British Columbia in the ninth round in 2021, the big righty racked up 120 strikeouts in 93 innings in 2022 and was solid in four starts with Fort Wayne before an arm injury shut him down. He ultimately underwent Tommy John surgery in the summer, so he likely won’t be back in action until late in the 2024 campaign. For a guy who was already old for his class, it means that he’ll likely head into his age 25 season with little or no Double-A experience, but the stuff is there to make him a candidate to blossom late.

RHP Dane Lais – A big-bodied righty out of high school in Oregon, Lais got the equivalent of sixth-round money as a 13th-rounder to bypass Corvallis last July. As it became the organization’s standard, he did not see any competitive action, working to build up from his pre-draft velocity in the low-90s. Still 18 until June, Lais will be in line for an opportunity to open the year in Lake Elsinore.

RHP Enmanuel Pinales – The Padres have had some success with older, $10,000 signings out of the Dominican Republic in recent years, including Miguel Mendez in 2021. However, they may have hit paydirt with the profile in 2022 with reliever Francis Peña and starter Pinales. A loose and athletic righty who will turn 23 in April, he made his stateside debut last summer and struggled in the complex but turned it on when he got to Lake Elsinore. Working with a mid-90s fastball and easy slider, he struck out 37 and walked 11 across 37.2 Cal League innings. Given his age, he’ll need to move quickly and may ultimately head to the bullpen, but he has enough interesting features to get an opportunity.

Relievers

Players Receiving Votes: Alek Jacob, Braden Nett, Cole Paplham,

RHP Stephen Kolek – Originally an 11th-round pick of the Dodgers in 2018 and traded to the Mariners in 2021, Kolek moved to the bullpen full-time in 2023. As he started to rely more on his sweeping slider, he allowed just four earned runs over his final 36 innings while striking out 44. It was enough to get the Padres to select him in the Rule 5 draft. With six scoreless outings in spring training, he seems to have earned a spot in the big league bullpen, where he’ll slot into a middle-inning role.

RHP Carter Loewen – An undrafted free agent out of the University of Hawaii in 2020, the Canadian piled up strikeouts in his debut for Fort Wayne in 2021 but got struck when opponents made contact. His elbow blew out in 2022, and he had Tommy John surgery, but he came back strong in 2023, striking out 58 in 49 innings of work with a fastball sitting 94-96 and a power slider. Now 25, he’ll need to move quickly, but he has the repertoire to succeed in a short relief role.

RHP David Morgan – Another undrafted free agent who has put himself on the radar since joining the Padres organization in 2022, the undersized righty has a big fastball and nasty slider that profile well in a relief role. The Orange County native and product of tiny Hope International University showed flashes in his first season, striking out 46 against just 13 walks in 44.2 innings. Another player who, because of COVID, didn’t join the professional ranks until he was almost 23 years old, Morgan will need to have success quickly, but his arsenal puts him in a good position for a breakout in 2024.

Wild Cards

Players Receiving Votes: Kannon Kemp, Carson Montgomery

LHP Javier Chacon – Originally signed out of Cuba in January 2021, injuries limited him to one dreadful outing in his first year. He bounced back impressively in 2022, earning the nod for the top pitching performance for the Padres ACL club, and seemed prime for a big 2023. Instead, he logged just four innings before he hit the IL at the end of April and missed two months. When he came back, he still showed a wicked breaking ball and lively fastball but fought to lock in any control as he continued to deal with soreness. Chacon likely won’t be ready to join an affiliate until May, but his age-21 season offers one last opportunity to prove that his nasty stuff can translate to on-field success. If he can make it come together, he could rack up eye-popping strikeout totals.

RHP Reggie Lawson – Once one of the most promising pitchers in the system, Lawson fought elbow and shoulder injuries that ultimately led him to walk away from the game in August 2022. Last November, having gotten fully healthy and into a better headspace, Lawson came off the voluntarily retired list and re-signed with the Padres. Now 26, the High Desert native has thrown fewer than 100 total innings since 2019 and owns a 5.30 career ERA at this point. However, if healthy, his could be an amazing comeback story.